History Of Off Year Elections, Jerry Cummings

Good afternoon, Oregon, I see a lot of jubilation on one side of the proverbial aisle and a great deal of angst on the other today. As pundits and pollsters and political junkies seek for reasonable conclusions about "what the election results really mean"...Let me offer a historical perspective. In over a hundred years in all but three midterm elections (the even number year in between presidential election years) the party of the sitting President has lost seats in both houses of Congress. There are ultimately three dominating factors at work that remain consistent across party lines, different administrations, and in war or peace, high or low unemployment, and economic good or bad seasons. First, the apathy of the White House party rank and file voter. For whatever reason, something in human nature causes us to react to fear, anger, or controversy more aggressively than we do to positive feelings. So, consequently, voter turnout is nearly always lower for the party that does control the White House during a midterm election cycle. Secondly, the reverse is also true because the party that is not in the White House has a clearly defined "villain" to focus on. Not thousands of individual candidates across the fruited plains, but one target: The Opposition President. So, the opposition party turns out in higher numbers. The third reason is something in the American psyche, we are more okay with gridlock than we are with giving any political party or movement all of the keys to to our Kingdom. We fear the prospect of tyranny more than we fear chaos and conflict. In fact, we have learned in two and a half centuries again and again that partisan power splits can yield some incredible results. Ronald Reagan, with the hard work of Bob Packwood worked with the Democrat Speaker of the House to give Americans the broadest tax relief in History. Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich balanced the budget four times in a row. If our leaders accept the sacred trust given to them yesterday and go to the capital ready to make the country work, the conflict can be healthy. In recent years, we have seen little cooperation and I'm not optimistic. But, as ever, I remain hopeful.

~The Just Sayer